COVID-19 second wave continues to grow

A booster shot of COVID-19 vaccine is now officially recommended for people with seriously compromised immune systems, representing around 3% of the adult population of the United States.

According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), these groups are especially vulnerable because they are at more risk of severe, prolonged illness and emerging data suggests they do not always build up the same level of immunity as people who are not immunocompromised.

Small studies have also suggested that fully vaccinated but immunocompromised people have accounted for a significant proportion of hospitalized breakthrough cases – somewhere between 40 and 44%.

The CDC specifically recommends a third dose of the vaccine to people who have been receiving active cancers treatment for tumors or cancers of the blood; have received an organ or stem cell transplant and are taking medicine to suppress the immune system; have moderate or severe primary immunodeficiency, such as DiGeorge syndrome; have advanced or untreated HIV; or are being actively treated with drugs that may suppress your immune response, such as high-dose corticosteroids.

“At a time when the Delta variant is surging, an additional vaccine dose for some people with weakened immune systems could help prevent serious and possibly life-threatening COVID-19 cases within this population,” said CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky.

The CDC has also released new data on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant women. Current data assessed vaccination early in pregnancy and did not find an increased risk of miscarriage among nearly 2500 pregnant women who received an mRNA vaccine before 20 weeks of pregnancy.

“CDC encourages all pregnant people or people who are thinking about becoming pregnant and those breastfeeding to get vaccinated to protect themselves from COVID-19,” said Walensky.

“The vaccines are safe and effective, and it has never been more urgent to increase vaccinations as we face the highly transmissible Delta variant and see severe outcomes from COVID-19 among unvaccinated pregnant people.”

According to the CDC, clinicians have seen the number of pregnant people infected with COVID-19 rise recently due to the highly contagious Delta variant, low vaccine uptake among pregnant people and increased risk of severe illness while pregnant.

Breakthrough Cases

As the Delta variant continues to spread, both locally and worldwide, focus has turned to the question of breakthrough cases. “Breakthrough case” is the term used to describe a COVID-19 infection in a person who has been fully vaccinated.

According to John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the stories of breakthrough cases may seem worrying, but they are actually proving how well the vaccines can prevent severe illness. Breakthrough cases represent only a small number of total infections – in most states, less than 5% - and are not responsible for the rise in current U.S. infections.

The vaccines are also still protecting against severe illness, with fully vaccinated people much less likely to be hospitalized.

Updated figures from the WDH show that, of more than 7000 lab confirmed and probable cases in Wyoming between May 1 and August 10, just over 95% did not report being fully vaccinated. Of the 350 people hospitalized during that time, just under 95% did not report being fully vaccinated.

Percent Positive

The percentage of tests that come back with a positive result for COVID-19 is recorded in Wyoming as a rolling 14-day average. During the first wave of the pandemic in Wyoming, this reached a peak of 6.655% on January 8.

During the quieter months of March to June, the average dropped considerably to the point where between 1.5% and 2.5% of all tests were coming back with a positive result. This number began to climb in mid-July and reached a new record on August of 7.090%.

In other words, of every 100 tests performed in this state, about seven are currently coming back with a positive result for COVID-19 infection. According to the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the percentage of positive tests is a critical measure because it indicates how widespread infection is; a higher percent positive can suggest higher transmission and that there are likely more people with the virus in the community who haven’t been tested yet.

How high is too high? This is generally understood to be a percent positive greater than 5%.

For example, the World Health Organization recommended that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments considered reopening.

Current Stats

Other ongoing statistics offer similar signals of alarm in terms of the growing spread of COVID-19 in Wyoming. The number of active cases in this state has been growing at a fairly dramatic rate and has more than doubled since the beginning of August.

Last Tuesday, the number of active cases grew by 127 to reach 1663. On that day, 558 of the active cases were known to involve the Delta variant.

Active cases increased by 200 the next day, with 671 of the 1891 active cases known to involve Delta. On Thursday, the increase of 99 cases also saw Delta-related active cases grow to 692.

Wyoming ended the week with more than 2000 active cases, a number that has not been seen since the middle of January. An increase of 98 on Friday left the state with 2088 active cases, with 694 known to involve the Delta variant.

On Monday, thanks to a large number of reported recoveries that slightly outpaced the 535 new laboratory confirmed and 137 probable cases, the active case count dropped for the first time in more than two weeks. However, it only declined by five cases, leaving the active case count at 2083.

It is important to note, however, that these numbers can only represent known infections from patients who were voluntarily tested or, in the case of probable infections, reported their status to the WDH. There is, and has always been, a strong likelihood of significant numbers of unknown infections.

Hospitalizations also continue to increase across the state. On Monday, the total number of Wyoming residents who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 was 112, a higher number than has been seen since January 6.

In Crook County Memorial Hospital, two COVID-19 inpatients have been recorded over the last week.

Also on Monday, Crook County was one of only two Wyoming counties with a community transmission level set at “substantial,” along with Sublette County. According to the CDC’s ongoing tracking, every other county is flagged at the top level of community transmission, “high.”

The WDH announced last Tuesday that seven more deaths have been recorded, bringing the total number of Wyomingites whose deaths have been caused by COVID-19 to 793. This included three people from Laramie County, two from Natrona County and one each from Park and Sheridan Counties.